The Economic Situation of Eastern Veneto Industry (first quarter 2026 balance – April-September 2026 forecasts) conducted by Confindustria Veneto Est, in collaboration with Fondazione Nord Est, on a sample of 754 manufacturing and service companies in the provinces of Padua, Treviso, Venice, and Rovigo, captures the first effects of a worsened scenario.
Read more Forza10 grows with innovation and internationalization
The trend
The data shows that manufacturing activity started the year still on the rise, although less intensely than the previous period. However, the conflict in the Middle East reduces growth expectations. In the first quarter of 2026, production recorded an increase of +0.8% year-on-year (after +2.6% in the fourth quarter of 2025), more pronounced for medium-large companies (+2.2) and the metalworking sector (+2.6%), supported by precautionary inventory accumulation. Exports remained stable, before the conflict, at +0.2%. However, the impact of the war and the surge in energy and raw material prices emerges in the sharp decline in production expectations, stable between April and September for 58.3% of companies, and down for 25.2%.
On the sales front, industrial turnover improved in the first quarter thanks to a 1.1% growth in the domestic market, and less (but still positive) in the foreign market (+0.2%), a synthesis of growth for EU markets (+1.0%) and a decline for non-EU markets (-1.2%). Orders recorded a trend increase of 2.4%. Employment was almost stationary, but slowing down (-0.1%).
Read more Ok to six cohesion agreements for 1.7 billion
Deterioration
The Gulf crisis that erupted at the end of February inflames the prices of raw materials, both energy and non-energy: it doubles up to 64% (from 32.3), with peaks of 70.1% in the metalworking sector, the share of those who report further increases in the first three months. Inflation is rising, and the European Central Bank could raise rates in June, thus uncertainty reduces credit demand: the cost of money is increasing for 13.6% of companies, and corporate liquidity is strained for 14.6%.
The prolonged conflict expands its impact on the economy. Oil remains too expensive, consumer prices are rising, and the expectation of a rate hike is growing, while confidence and expectations for industry, which was trying to recover, are falling. Forecasts for April-September are predominantly oriented towards maintaining production levels, but the share of those expecting a decrease increases by ten points (25.2%), 16.5% expect an increase, compared to 58.3% who lean towards stability. Expectations for domestic orders are down for 35.5%, stable for 52.7%. Those for foreign demand are worsening, down for 34.7% (from 17.7), stable for half of companies, and growing for 15.2% (25.9% in medium-large companies). 34.6% foresee new hires (50.1% in medium-large companies).
Read more Amadeus, speculation about an early departure from Warner Bros Discovery (and return to Rai)
