The “conquest” of the truck market by Chinese players has not yet begun, but operators, at least in one case out of three, have already had interactions with Asian manufacturers and the medium-sized vehicle sector, alongside electric powertrains, could represent the battering ram on the European market for Chinese companies.
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This is revealed by a study conducted by Bain & Company on over 500 fleet operators in the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Poland, and Italy. The sector remains optimistic about growth and appears open to change. In Italy in particular, over 71% of operators expect an expansion of their vehicle fleet.
Looking at fuel types, operators expect a significant change in the composition of medium and heavy truck fleets by 2030 and 2035. In Italy, in the short term, diesel remains central, indicated by almost half of respondents; but in the medium term, electric powertrains progressively gain ground, reaching an expected share of 32% in 2035, substantially in line with diesel at 31%.
According to the European Truck Market Outlook 2026, the outlook of fleet operators is largely positive: 60% expect their fleets to grow in the next three years, while less than 10% foresee a reduction, with Italy leading the ranking, probably due to the higher average age of vehicles in circulation. At the same time, the sector’s average Net Promoter Score – an indicator that generally defines brand loyalty – has dropped by 21 points compared to 2022.
Volvo, Scania, and Mercedes-Benz are leaders in NPS, but positions vary by country and customer segment. On average: brands generally achieve about 20 more NPS points in domestic markets compared to export markets.
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