The latest polls before the vote on Sunday, September 20, come very close to a nightmare for Friedrich Merz and the Christian Democrats. In the race for mayor of Berlin, the CDU is at 20%, surpassed by one point by the Linke, with Alternative für Deutschland trailing at 18%. In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the Chancellor’s party has even dropped to 6%. It is only one point away from the threshold below which the doors of the regional parliament close.
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Sunday evening, the board of the Union of Conservatives (CDU-CSU) will follow the counting in real time, ready to judge Merz. When he took office, not even a year and a half ago, no one could have imagined that the elections in the capital and in the small Baltic state would become a decisive turning point.
In the meantime, however, there has been a series of missteps that have sunk support for Merz (below 15%) and his party to historic lows. On a national scale, the CDU has fallen to around 20% of voting intentions, down from 28.5% obtained in the February 2025 elections, which was already one of the worst results ever.
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Then came the disaster in Saxony-Anhalt on September 6, with AfD reaching 44% and just three seats short of an absolute majority in the regional parliament, while the CDU halved its votes below 18%. The crisis in the party thus came close to the breaking point.
The decline of the conservatives was accompanied by the rise of the far right, which since the Bundestag vote has gained ten points, reaching 30%.
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