Runoff temptation for the center-right on the electoral law. No decision has yet been made and evaluations, especially from a technical and constitutional point of view, are ongoing but – according to well-informed sources – the chances that the mechanism will be included in the center-right reform are rising. The majority’s sherpas will discuss it tomorrow, convened on the eve of the deadline for submitting amendments to the Constitutional Affairs Committee in the Senate on Tuesday at 12. Decisions on the issue will be made there, on which some, like FdI Senator Marcello Pera, are insisting also in view of the continuous growth of Vannacci’s party in the polls.
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The role of Vannacci
Shuffling the cards is the latest BiDiMedia s.r.l. poll on voting intentions from August 26: Brothers of Italy falls for the second consecutive month, stopping at 25.4% (-0.8), and the League drops below 5%, to 4.8% (-0.4). Futuro Nazionale instead rises to 8.0% (+0.9), a continuous increase that brings it to surpass Forza Italia, steady at 7.3% (+0.1). Without an alliance between the center-right and Vannacci, defeat for Giorgia Meloni and allies in the next elections, based on a pure arithmetic sum, would seem certain, while the center-right expanded to Futuro Nazionale remains first at 47.2% (stable), followed by the broad field, slightly down at 44.7% (-0.2).
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The runoff hypothesis
In this scenario, the return of the runoff could solve the problem for the center-right: in the first round center-right and Vannacci could go separately and the votes of the latter could be (at least in part) reabsorbed in the second round. The runoff hypothesis would not be unfavorable even to Ignazio La Russa – it is explained – Forza Italia would not have closed while the League would remain the most doubtful among the allies (the center-right electorate is traditionally less inclined to return to the polls two weeks later). In any case, more than one observer notes, a technical formulation must be found to protect against the risk of different majorities between the Chamber and the Senate. The reform currently provides that, even in this case (as in the one where no one reaches 42%), the pure proportional system is used. But what would happen if the runoff produced different outcomes?
The issue of female presence
Tomorrow the center-right will also return to discuss the formulation relating to gender alternation: it remains to be seen whether, in the end, it will be decided to maintain a gender constraint also on the top candidates as currently provided for the Rosatellum. What is certain, as confirmed also by the Minister for Relations with Parliament Luca Ciriani, is that in the Senate “the amendment on preferences will be reintroduced.” The measure introduced in the Chamber, which provides that the votes of those – except the best loser – who have not reached 3% are not counted for the calculation of the national electoral quota and therefore of the majority prize, would then seem destined to be dropped. According to several technicians, there is a risk of unconstitutionality in the center-right linked to the fact that the prize could be awarded to the coalition that, in fact, did not win more votes.
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