In August 2026, Istat reports, inflation jumps to +0.5% monthly and +3.3% annually (up from +2.9% the previous month). Analysts’ forecasts estimated an annual +3.4%. The high fuel prices weigh heavily: the inflation increase mainly reflects the trend in Energy prices, both unregulated (from +11.4% to +16.9%) and regulated (from +14.8% to +18.8%); conversely, prices for Recreational, cultural and personal care Services slow down (from +3.0% to +2.6%) as do prices for Transport Services (from +1.6% to +0.9%).
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The weight of high fuel prices
In August, the “core inflation,” calculated excluding the most volatile products, i.e., energy and fresh food, slightly slows down (from +1.6% to +1.5%) as does the inflation excluding only energy goods (from +1.8% to +1.7%), indicating that for now the fuel price increases have not yet spread to other products. The monthly change in the general index mainly reflects the increase in prices of regulated (+3.2%) and unregulated (+2.8%) Energy, Transport Services (+1.4%), Processed Food (+0.4%), and Durable Goods (+0.3%). The acquired inflation for 2026 (the inflation that would occur if the cost of living index remained at the August level for the rest of the year) is +2.9% for the general index and +1.9% for the core component (the Bank of Italy estimated 2026 inflation at 3.1% on July 17).
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The shopping cart
In August, the annual rate of change in prices of the so-called “shopping cart” (Food, home and personal care goods) remains stable (at +1.0%), not immediately affected by the high fuel prices. Meanwhile, that of high-frequency purchase products increases (from +3.4% to +4.3%).
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