Bills, annual expenses rising by 23% for families and 54% for businesses due to the expected increases in September. The estimate, for Il Sole 24 Ore, was made by Nomisma Energia calculating the impact on tariffs upon returning from the August break based on current wholesale prices.
This is a weighted average (prudential) starting from the price of the gas raw material communicated by Arera for vulnerable customers (the latest, for last July, indicated 60 cents per cubic meter). The 137 cents per cubic meter expected for September (against 106 in September 2025) would therefore lead a typical family (consuming 1,400 cubic meters annually) to pay 429 euros more by the end of 2026 (+29% compared to 2025). The gas price surge on the markets is being paid: on the Amsterdam TTF at the end of July it returned to exceed 60 euros per MWh, as it hadn’t since last March, due to the Hormuz tightening, and yesterday it soared above 62 euros per MWh in Europe.
Gas price increases have influenced, along with other factors (see Il Sole 24 Ore of August 7), electricity prices, whose wholesale prices in Italy exceeded 200 euros per MWh last week, as they hadn’t since January 2023. According to Nomisma Energia’s analysis, the estimate for the bill in September is 31.93 cents per kWh (against 28.75 in September 2026). A value that would also lead the typical household (consuming 2,700 kWh annually, net of any increased usage due to air conditioner use in these months of unusual heat) to pay 85.9 euros more by the end of 2026 (+11% compared to 2025). Adding both items, gas and electricity, the increase in spending for families could reach 515 euros by the end of 2026 (+23% over 2025).
Read more UNESCO: 35% of sites are in Europe, Venice as an example of cultural heritage
A separate reflection is deserved by fuels, characterized by a steep growth curve starting from the beginning of the war in Iran this spring. Nomisma Energia calculated an average of 2.017 euros per liter for September (considering both gasoline and diesel), then relating it to the value of 1.655 euros per liter in September 2025. The translation on the annual spending of a family consuming 1,000 liters of fuel in twelve months is 361.8 euros more spent by the end of 2026 (+22% compared to 2025). Therefore, considering everything together in a single energy bill that includes bills and fuel, Italian families could find themselves at the end of the year having to pay 876.8 euros more than in 2025.
Another chapter is that of business bills, on which the summer increases will also weigh. In this case too, Nomisma Energia has expressed estimates. Regarding gas, which remains the fastest growing component, the expectation is 71 cents per cubic meter against 43 in September 2025. For a typical company consuming 2,000 cubic meters of gas annually, this could mean an increased expense of 559,318 euros by the end of 2026 (+65% compared to 2025).
