According to preliminary estimates, in July the national consumer price index for the entire community (Nic), excluding tobacco, records a change of +0.2% on a monthly basis and +2.8% on an annual basis (from +3.0% the previous month). This is reported by Istat.
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The slight slowdown in inflation reflects the price dynamics of Unprocessed Food (from +4.4% to +3.8%), Unregulated Energy (from +13.3% to +10.6%) and Various Services (from +2.5% to +1.8%); accelerating are, instead, the prices of Processed Food (from -0.2% to +0.2%), Regulated Energy (from +9.2% to +14.9%) and Transport Services (from +1.1% to +1.6%). In July, core inflation, excluding energy and fresh food, remains stable at +1.6%, while inflation excluding only energy goods slows from +1.9% to +1.8%. Prices of goods decelerate (from +3.3% to +3.1%), while the dynamics of services remain stable (+2.6%). The differential between the services sector and the goods sector goes from -0.7 to -0.5 percentage points. The annual rate of change in prices of Food, household and personal care goods remains at +1.3%, while that of high-frequency purchase products decreases (from +3.9% to +3.6%). The monthly change in the general index reflects the increase in prices of Regulated Energy (+6.6%), Transport Services (+1.4%), Processed Food (+0.7%) and Recreational, cultural and personal care services (+0.5%); these effects are only partially offset by the decrease in Unprocessed Food (-1.1%) and Unregulated Energy (-0.3%). The acquired inflation for 2026 is +2.7% for the general index and +1.8% for the core component. According to preliminary estimates, the harmonized consumer price index (Ipca) records a change of -1% on a monthly basis, due to summer sales which the Nic does not take into account, and +2.9% on an annual basis (from +3% the previous month).
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In July, consumer and business confidence rises
In July, an increase is estimated both in consumer confidence (from 92.4 to 94.2) and in the composite indicator of business confidence (from 95.3 to 95.6). Istat reports, explaining that regarding consumers all variables included in the calculation “show a positive trend except for judgments on the family economic situation, whose balance suffers a marginal decrease, and opinions on the opportunity to save in the current phase.” Regarding businesses, confidence is rising in manufacturing and services while it is declining in construction.
Among consumers, Istat indicates, there is a marked improvement both in the economic climate and the future climate (from 87.6 to 90.9 and from 87.4 to 89.8, respectively); the personal and current climate show a more contained progress (respectively from 94.2 to 95.4 and from 96.2 to 97.4). With reference to businesses, in manufacturing the index grows from 88.6 to 89.6, in market services it increases from 97.2 to 98.1 and in retail trade it rises from 105.6 to 106.4. In construction, however, the index decreases from 101.6 to 96.8. As for the components of the confidence indices, in manufacturing judgments on orders and expectations on production levels are improving despite an accumulation of stocks. In construction both variables worsen. Moving to the market services sector, a positive evolution is evident in judgments both on order levels and business trends; expectations on orders decline. In retail trade, there is a positive trend in sales expectations, widespread both in large-scale distribution and traditional distribution, while related judgments worsen; the balance of evaluations on inventory stocks increases.
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