Yemen, Tehran’s challenge to the Saudis

Yemen, Tehran's challenge to the Saudis
Yemeni Houthi rebels march during a mobilization campaign in Sanaa, Yemen, Thursday, September 10, 2026.   (APN)

The Houthi militias have captured the port city of Mocha and the strategic Hanish islands off the coast. Thus continues the effort of the pro-Iranian forces to gain total control of the Yemeni coast on the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. An evolution of the conflict, which began in 2014, that risks further complicating the military and commercial situation in the Middle Eastern area, already grappling with the war in Iran and the Hormuz blockade. An evolution that risks making it even more difficult to get Asian goods to Europe and especially an additional bottleneck for oil and natural gas shipments.

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The forces in the field

After the period of the Arab Springs, the civil conflict in Yemen began in 2014, when the Houthi forces, also known as Ansar Allah, expelled government forces from the capital Sanaa. The group remains the dominant force in the country today: the most populous areas of the country remain under its control. The militias are supported by the Tehran government with which it has entered the Resistance Axis alliance. Iran provides funds, training for soldiers, and components for drones and missiles.

The internationally recognized government – known as the Plc – is supported by Saudi Arabia, from which it receives weapons and air support. The Saudi Kingdom cannot tolerate the presence of a rival force near its borders, especially when it threatens commercial traffic in the Red Sea and the fundamental oil revenues.

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Further complicating the picture, other paramilitary groups have carved out areas of influence in the chaotic context of the country. Like the Stc forces – Southern Transitional Council – which are supported by the United Arab Emirates and are part of the opposition group to the Houthis, although they have the will to create an autonomous state in southern Yemen.

The resumption of the conflict

What reignited the conflict, after almost four years of truce, was the bombing last July by Yemeni government forces of Sanaa airport to prevent a plane carrying Houthi officials returning from Iran from landing. In retaliation, on July 20, the Ansar Allah forces announced a “navigation ban” towards Saudi Arabia. A response to what they called a “continuous siege” of the country. The Houthi militias then attacked a Saudi oil tanker on July 24 and the Jazan refinery the following day. Raids that also triggered the American response: President Donald Trump announced heavy punishment in case of further raids. A threat that did not deter the group from announcing a few days later a plan to charge tolls to ships passing through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. A model similar to what Iran proposed for Hormuz. A plan that the new territorial conquests bring closer and closer to realization.

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