The El Niño phenomenon this year will reach “gigantic proportions.” The UN climate agency (Wmo) yesterday issued its strongest warning in fifty years: the warming of the surface waters of the tropical Pacific Ocean, which periodically influences rainfall and temperatures over vast areas of the world, will have unprecedented repercussions in 2026. “El Niño is intensifying before our eyes,” said the United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres yesterday, “science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters and these waters are warming. Temperatures continue to rise and the world is threatened by extreme weather conditions.”
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It has long been known that El Niño would be stronger this year, but yesterday experts assured they now have more than accurate estimates, and that the phenomenon will reach a strength never recorded before. The United Nations agency predicts a near 100% probability that El Niño, fueled by exceptionally high temperatures of the Pacific Ocean waters, will persist until February 2027. El Niño has already had worrying repercussions this year on agricultural commodities in tropical areas, contributing to a severe food crisis in Central America. “If this trajectory continues,” said Wmo Secretary-General Celeste Saulo, “it could be stronger than any event observed since the beginning of our monitoring. Literally off the scale.”
A very intense Niño can significantly alter precipitation and temperature patterns worldwide and favor extreme weather events, such as typhoons and floods on one hand, or drought driven on the other. All events that put the environment at risk, undermine people’s safety, and also cause damage to the global economy. The heat increase caused by El Niño, for example, has worsened forest fires in Indonesia and weakened monsoon rains in India, essential for the country’s harvest. Later in the year, experts say, the effects will extend to Australia, where the risk of fires will increase, and to South America, where the danger of intense floods will grow.
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The highest price for this climate upheaval will be paid especially by the populations of Central America and Southern Africa. The UN World Food Programme has estimated that starting this month, because of Niño, 50 million more people could face a severe food crisis. By next year, the percentage of people at risk of severe food insecurity could increase by 22%: some 274 million more malnourished individuals. The impact of Niño will also be felt in East Africa and Southeast Asia: some of these countries are already experiencing below-average rainfall, or floods and unusually high temperatures, while others are expected to face worsening conditions during the upcoming planting and harvesting seasons.
The 2015 Paris Climate Agreement committed to keeping the global temperature increase within 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels, but according to the UN climate agency, beneath the surface of the Pacific Ocean, in some spots, temperatures have now exceeded the average by more than 8 degrees. Above-normal sea temperatures are also expected in other parts of the world, including the Indian Ocean, the tropical Atlantic, and some areas of the Australian coast. For this reason, the Wmo yesterday strongly called on governments for urgent commitment to accelerate the phase-out of fossil fuels, reduce methane pollution, and protect lands, forests, and oceans.
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