It is now almost certain: global warming will exceed the threshold of 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels, the limit set by the 2015 Paris Agreement. And it will most likely happen in the coming years. Even in the most optimistic scenario, if all national plans are fully implemented, the increase will reach 1.8 degrees, while in all other cases even higher peaks are expected, up to 2 degrees. The warning comes from UNEP, the United Nations Environment Programme, in the Limit Overshoot report. However, the study outlines a possible three-step solution to reverse the course: exceeding the threshold, reaching the peak, and subsequent reduction, which involves massive interventions to reduce the effects of climate change.
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Exceeding the threshold
Although exceeding the limits set by the Paris Agreement is inevitable, UNEP in the report emphasizes that the implications of overshooting should not be underestimated, and it should not be considered acceptable. The consequences could be very serious. Possible impacts include accelerated sea level rise, a greater likelihood of ecosystem collapse such as coral reefs, extreme temperatures, larger wildfires, and profound changes in the cryosphere, that is, the portion of land covered by ice or snow.
Glaciers could lose a quarter of their mass by 2100, a dynamic that would lead to a sea level rise of 9-12.5 centimeters. Essentially, the report reiterates, if concrete and prompt action is not taken, global warming will cause damage to people, societies, and economies, especially in small island states, which will be completely or partially submerged by water.
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Not only that. Exceeding the 1.5-degree threshold could lead to increasingly intense heatwaves and flooding. Additionally, warmer oceans, declining oxygen levels, and increased acidity will make living conditions more difficult for marine life and the societies that depend on it for their survival.
“The scorching heat, devastating fires, and deadly floods of this summer are a warning of what lies ahead. We must make the overshoot of the 1.5-degree threshold as limited and brief as possible. This requires an overshoot in terms of ambition,” said United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres.
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