“Caution on debt is a form of pragmatic sovereigntism.” In his closing speech at the Ambrosetti Forum in Cernobbio, politically marked by the dialectical battle between Roberto Vannacci and Mario Monti, the Minister of Economy Giancarlo Giorgetti carves out this definition to indicate an alternative path both to the sovereigntism of “showing off” and to European orthodoxy. The heart of pragmatic sovereigntism, in the reconstruction by the head of the accounts, lies in its concrete repercussions, starting from the regained international confidence that allows Italy to face with relative security the “storm looming on the bond market,” with yields rising due to the swelling debt (led by the USA) concurrent with yet another inflation awakening.
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Faithful to a style consolidated over the years, Giorgetti maintains a cautious watchfulness even in words, without however giving up claiming the results achieved by the Government. “The boat has stayed afloat and it was not trivial,” he explains, adding that barring surprises this year’s growth should reach “close to +1%.” The result, after all, was almost entirely achieved in the first six months of the year, when the indicator shows an acquired growth of +0.8% to which the effect of three more working days than last year must be added, bringing the count above between +0.9% and +0.95%. It would take very little, in short, to go above the round figure with the results of the second half of the year.
Not even this was taken for granted on the eve, as testified by the +0.6% cautiously indicated by the Government in the latest public finance document in line with international forecasts. But obviously a few decimals are not enough to close the structural problem of low growth, which Italy shares with “old Europe” as emphasized by the Minister of Economy himself.
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After all, the country pays the price of wars in “double power” terms, due to exposure to imports of energy raw materials. And it must face domestic issues in addition to European ones. Among the former, Giorgetti again highlights the deficit of private investments, which in his view points to responsibilities external to the Government. On this point, the Minister of Economy speaks clearly: “Why do Italian pension funds invest all over the world except in Italy?” he asks. To the rhetorical question, the answer cannot come from an “absence of opportunities for returns for patient capital in Italy,” since money “from pension funds all over the world” comes to us.
On the maneuver, the minister does not open up, because the work has yet to get underway. Among the priorities remains obviously the country’s attractiveness towards young people, to counter a demographic decline that promises to be increasingly felt on productivity and GDP. On this point, a central lever is that of wages, on which however “the role of companies is central” Giorgetti emphasizes: managers and entrepreneurs at Villa d’Este applaud this passage, but it remains to be seen how to turn words into action.
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