(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) – The economy shows a resilience greater than expected, despite the international framework subjected to shocks caused by high geopolitical and trade instability: growth forecasts have been improved for 2026. This is highlighted in the August Economic Outlook note from the Parliamentary Budget Office, which updates the economic situation: for 2026 the PBO estimates GDP at 0.9% with a revision of four tenths of a percentage point compared to the previous April assessments, made during the validation exercise of the Public Finance Document; the forecast of 0.6 for 2027 is instead confirmed.
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Inflation: PBO estimates +3.1% average in 2026, +2.3% in 2027
Price acceleration represents one of the most significant elements of attention in the scenario. In the second quarter of 2026, inflation rose to 3%, mainly driven by the increase in energy prices following tensions in the Middle East, then slightly declined in July (to 2.8%). This is reported by the PBO in the August Economic Outlook. Price dynamics reacted more quickly compared to the rest of the Euro Area, closing the previously recorded negative inflation differential with European partners. In the forecast scenario, the household consumption deflator is expected to increase by about three percentage points on average in 2026, then slow to 2.3% in 2027; labor costs would increase at a slower pace than consumer prices, causing a temporary erosion of the purchasing power of labor incomes.
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