In Germany, drought risks splitting the Rhine, one of Europe’s main commercial arteries, in two. In France, water use is restricted in almost 70% of the national territory. In Hungary, Romania, Austria, Slovakia, Serbia, and Bulgaria, low Danube levels are threatening electricity production. In Hungary, in particular, the Paks nuclear power plant has already had to almost shut down its reactors because there is not enough cooling water and the water that is available is too warm. The Vistula in Warsaw is also at historic lows.
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It’s Not a Black Swan
With heat waves and fires, drought is one of the many faces of the climate crisis, which exacts a heavy toll in terms of lives and economic damage. Unlike other crises, however, this one cannot be called a “black swan.” On the contrary: for decades scientists and environmentalists have been trying to warn about the consequences of global warming.
The Rhine Divided in Two
While the situation of the Po is dramatic, that of the Rhine worries half of Europe. According to the German Association of Inland Navigation, “during the week, and for the first time, the Rhine will no longer be continuously navigable and will effectively be divided in two.” The dividing line is at Kaub, between Koblenz and Mainz, where the water is at the lowest levels ever recorded (below 20 cm). As Carsten Brzeski of ING Research points out in a note, the Rhine is “the infrastructure around which much of German industry has physically developed.” About 285 million tons of goods pass on its waters each year, making the river “the most important logistics corridor in Europe after the open sea.” The Rhine connects Rotterdam to the Ruhr steel district, the Main district, and the Ludwigshafen chemical complex. “When its level drops, the impact hits the very heart of German industry,” Brzeski continues.
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During the 2018 drought, inland navigation volumes fell by about a quarter, with a 1% drop in industrial production. Overall, according to the ING economist, GDP growth lost about 0.3%. A new episode like this would make the German recovery even more sluggish.
The Transport Minister, Steffen Bilger, has proposed temporarily suspending the ban on truck traffic on Sundays and holidays, to transfer some essential transport from the river to the road, following the example of Saarland and Rhineland-Palatinate. However, as Brzeski reminds us, “replacing a single barge can require up to 100 trucks or an entire freight train.”
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