China recapitalizes its financial system to support weak domestic demand but there is nothing to be done, the country’s economy still and always depends on the strong external demand, capable of leading it towards a trade surplus exceeding the record of 1.2 trillion dollars in 2025.
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A hellish combination that prevents reversing the Chinese growth path from import-export to domestic consumption by absorbing overcapacity and mitigating the risks of dependence on foreign markets.
Also in August, according to Chinese Customs data, exports increased by 25% compared to 2025 and imports by 28.2%, expanding the trade surplus to 119.1 billion dollars and bringing the total for the first eight months to 806 billion. Half of the export is driven by the technology supply chain related to artificial intelligence mixed with procurement induced by tariff negotiation variables.
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The trade surplus with the United States is rising to 29.18 billion dollars compared to 28 billion dollars in July, with Chinese exports to the United States up 34.4% year-on-year, surpassing the 17.8% growth of imports.
The upcoming summits
The end-of-month summit in the US between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping and the one between China and the European Union in October are approaching, two key events for Beijing, and these data risk reigniting the trade conflicts that are intended to be eased, including the fragile truce signed with the US that expires in November. The two governments are now exploring reciprocal tariff cuts on goods worth 30 billion dollars. Chinese rare earth exports in August increased month-on-month but remained well below the monthly average since the beginning of the year. Crude oil imports, on the other hand, decreased by 23.4% year-on-year in volume terms.
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