«For gas-intensive companies, the recent gas price increases recorded in the last few weeks due to tensions in the Middle East are a source of great concern: previous price hikes are consolidating, resulting in a doubling of energy costs, considering both the increases in gas and electricity prices, from 9 to about 18 billion euros, if projected on an annual basis.» This is how Aldo Chiarini, president of Gas Intensive, which brings together the supply chains of large consumers of gas and electricity, tries to quantify the wave of energy prices on the energy-intensive Italian manufacturing sector. The consortium estimates that if current spot prices remain constant (yesterday gas closed at 72 euros per MWh on the Ttf, a level not seen since January 2023), the entire sector (including steel, paper, chemicals, ceramics, glass, cement) could face – on a prospective annual basis – a 133% increase for gas and an 87% increase for electricity. With obvious impacts on competitiveness: «With gas consistently above 70 euros per MWh, it becomes very difficult, if not impossible, for many productions to operate competitively,» explains Chiarini. «Some companies are already evaluating whether to restart production after the summer break or if, at these price levels, it is more convenient to remain idle. Others, who cannot shut down plants, will be forced to produce at a loss, as long as possible.»
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Added to this is the approach of winter: «We start with European storage just at 65%, a lower level compared to previous years, and therefore with potentially greater risks in the coming months,» he notes. Urgent measures are therefore needed such as the implementation of the liquidity service of the Bollette decree, to eliminate the Psv-Ttf differential (between the Italian hub and the reference Dutch hub), and an interruptibility (paid interruption of gas withdrawals by a large consumer) «adequate to the exceptional conditions of this year,» says Chiarini, who also recognizes the need for extraordinary measures, «following those adopted during the 2022 energy crisis, along with a long-term supply system for companies with high gas usage that allows access to supplies at prices comparable to LNG on foreign markets.»
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Along the same lines are the various supply chains: «For the paper sector, assuming a constant price throughout the year at 70 euros per MWh, gas expenditure would increase by one billion euros, rising from 0.8 billion in 2025 to 1.8 billion in 2026: more than double,» says Assocarta president Lorenzo Poli, noting how the 2026 gas price levels have not been seen since January 2023 and the peaks of the Psv-Ttf differential have exceeded 4 euros per MWh (they were 2.9 in 2025). «We have estimated that since the beginning of the year, the gas bill has increased by 90 million euros for glass production, to which almost another 20 million euros of spread to the Psv is added,» adds Vitaliano Torno, new president of Assovetro: «Under these conditions, many of our sectors such as reinforcement fibers, household glass, but also automotive glass and packaging, already challenged by often unfair international competition and low demand due to the general economic slowdown, will not be able to maintain production in our country.» Faced with the risk of losing important parts of the national production fabric, there is a common request for urgent measures: from the implementation of the Bollette decree to tools that can alleviate energy costs for companies.
For steel companies, critical growth is also underway (estimate: +15-20% for gas and +30-40% for electricity by the end of the year if the summer trend continues). For Federacciai president Antonio Gozzi, «it is necessary to intervene with targeted policies to support energy-intensive companies. It is not about asking for emergency measures without a perspective, but about creating structural conditions that allow our companies to continue competing in international markets, investing and maintaining the primacy of the most decarbonized steel industry in the world.»
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