More than double the GDP growth of Germany and a trend in line with that of France. Above all, 2026 in terms of wealth produced could be better than last year thanks to a +0.9% while consumption is expected to increase by 1.2%. The champion region of growth remains Lombardy with the support of the Central Northern Italy regions, while the South, caught between lower incomes and a decline in the resident population, will have lower incomes and household consumption will remain below 2007 levels, the year before the Lehman Brothers crisis.
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This emerges from the analysis by the Confcommercio Research Office on the trend of regional GDP and consumption in the 2025-2026 biennium. Thus, this year too Lombardy confirms itself as the “locomotive” of Italy because it is the only region that will have the best values for both GDP and consumption expected to grow by 1.2% and 1.8% respectively. Following are Trentino-Alto Adige, with GDP +1% and consumption +1.5%, and Lazio (+1% and +1.4%). At the bottom of the GDP ranking are Basilicata and Calabria (both with +0.6%) which also record the weakest performances for consumption at +0.4% and +0.5% respectively. According to the Merchants, this trend could lead to a widening gap between North and South. This should be the “sine qua non” condition to make the growth of the country’s system more balanced and lasting.
Then there is the legacy of 2025 which consists of a +0.3% both in GDP and consumption, to which is added the dynamism of the national economy in the first months of 2026 with an improvement in the consumption climate and GDP. Results achieved thanks to a further increase in tourist arrivals and a moderate recovery in industrial production. A climate that pushes employment levels to the maximum. The inflation spike caused by the Gulf conflict and energy prices weighs, but core inflation remains close to 2%.
On the consumption front along the Peninsula, thus including tourist spending and excluding that of residents made outside the region, the South also showed more modest dynamics than the national figure in 2025. These factors also influence the estimates for 2026. Prospectively, the trend of improvement in economic activity and consumption estimated for 2026 should, in fact, affect the Central-Northern regions slightly more. For the South, the expected dynamics are substantially in line with what was seen in 2025, resulting in a marginal widening of the significant gaps existing between the different areas of the country.
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