Last week the ECB warned: the energy shock is yet to come. The wave of price increases linked to the commodity race triggered by the war in Iran and the Hormuz variable will be inevitable. But where will it hit the hardest? To answer this question, Civiqa (a platform supporting public administration) conducted a study with OpenEconomics called Energy Risk and the Productive Structure of Territories, in which an energy exposure index of Italian districts is calculated.
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Leading the ranking of the most vulnerable territories are the manufacturing and logistics hubs of the Northwest: Genoa, Lodi, Novara, then Taranto, Piacenza, Livorno, Brindisi, Syracuse, Vigevano, Cagliari, to name the top ten. Looking at Italy as a whole (see also the map alongside), a large belt emerges starting from Piedmont and extending to Romagna in the North, with a more enclave-like configuration in the South. The top absolute positions are occupied by the western Po Valley logistics-manufacturing axis. One can also see the central-southern Adriatic axis, where steel and petrochemicals concentrate in short supply chain basins, then reaching the ports and Tyrrhenian coastal hubs.
The starting point for this mapping is the 515 “local labor systems” with which Istat defines the Italian labor markets, also including tourist systems, urban systems, and non-specialized systems (without a district vocation). Within this vast perimeter, 52 systems fall into the most exposed energy shock band identified by the study. Of these, 31 belong to heavy industry, present in Italy with 111 districts: roughly one in three is therefore highly exposed to energy price increases. Six out of ten of the most vulnerable have a specialization in steel, chemicals, ceramics, metals, or shipbuilding.
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13.1 million Italians live in these 52 territories, the Civiqa and OpenEconomics study further indicates: 22.2% of the total Italian population. Geographically lining up the values: 22 of the 52 systems in the most exposed band are in the North, 9 in the Center, 21 in the South and islands. However, the degree of concentration changes. In the South and islands, 33.6% of residents live in a local system in the most exposed band, compared to 18.1% in the North and 12.7% in the Center.
How was this index calculated? By crossing several variables. Two economic: how much energy the different systems consume directly and how much they depend on supply chains with upstream risks; and one demographic: the population. The study also takes into account a mitigating condition of the first two factors: the penetration of renewables in the territory. The more they are present in the local energy mix, the more the so-called economic exposure decreases (net of the population weight). The “shield” – the study reads – is significant in Valle D’Aosta, Bolzano province, Basilicata, Marche, Trento province, Sicily.
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