The new intervention to curb fuel prices is expected this week. In the form of a decree-law, focused in particular on diesel and supported by a Ministerial Decree to move the small additional aid given by the June VAT surplus. The idea is to build a bridge, costing around a hundred million, towards the next round of mobile excise duties, which after the first days of August could regain control, financing discounts with the July VAT surplus. If the revenues are sufficient, the second stage would follow the same path as June, when the price list fever was lower and 149.4 million covered a month of (mini) discounts.
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The latest increases
Even on Sunday, the numbers on the service station billboards showed the usual litany of increases. The average price of diesel on the road network rose to 2.184 cents per liter, less than three cents from the historic high of mid-March 2022, which will be reached shortly without a change of course. On the motorway, the average soared to 2.255 euros per liter. For petrol, prices range from 1.981 euros per liter on ordinary roads to 2.071 in motorway service areas. During this July, which saw new threats from the Houthis in the Red Sea alongside the breakdown of the truce between the US and Iran, the price of petrol has so far increased by 17.5 cents per liter, while diesel has gained 30 cents.
Upcoming measures
The differing vitality of the two fuels increases the likelihood of a dedicated intervention, predominantly or exclusively, for diesel. The funds, in fact, do not grow on trees, but more likely come from chapters such as ETS revenues and Antitrust sanctions already tapped by the latest fuel decrees, and they are not infinite. Such premises suggest concentrating the intervention, also to make it noticeable, on the more expensive fuel. The precedent being looked at is recent, namely the decree at the end of April (Dl 63/2026) which financed nine days of discounts, from May 2 to 10, with 146.5 million, offering 24.4 cents per liter on diesel and 6.1 on petrol.
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The bill at the pump
Besides being the most expensive, diesel is also the most used fuel. On an average day, just under 110 million liters are consumed in Italy, and with its 76.8 million liters, diesel covers about 70% of purchases. At these rates, the price increases accumulated so far in July amount to an extra cost at the pump of about 28.4 million per day, or 880 million per month. A partially positive note may come from August consumption, which, despite the multicolored stickers used to measure traffic intensity on holiday roads, is generally lower than in other months due to the pause in production activities and restrictions on truck circulation. This double factor reduces diesel usage, while petrol is purchased a little more than usual. Based on August 2025 data, the cost of the Middle Eastern crisis on motorists’ wallets next month would be around 800 million, compared to early July prices.
Political reasons
The objective of the new measures the Government is working on is not a full compensation for these increases; but a mitigation that, if calculators allow, will try to keep prices below the symbolic threshold of two euros per liter.
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