For the metalworking production, the weak light signal of the first quarter of 2026 faded in the second quarter, volumes grew on average by 0.5% compared to the previous three months and by 2.2% compared to the same period in 2025; a slowdown is underway, from the positive sign in April, a brake was recorded in May and June. Uncertainty in geopolitical tensions impacts companies’ forecasts for the coming months, which indicate a decline in production activity and a reduction in employment: 23% have activated procedures for crisis and corporate restructuring, and extraordinary wage supplementation has exceeded the use of ordinary wage supplementation, a sign of now “structural” difficulties.
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Industry: production increases in both month-on-month (+0.4%) and year-on-year (+0.5%) terms
The Federmeccanica conjunctural observatory presented yesterday in Rome highlights how industrial production remains fragile and recovery signals are still discontinuous: in the industry, production increased slightly, both in month-on-month terms (+0.4%) and year-on-year (+0.5%). In presenting the data, director general Stefano Franchi urged caution: “Many metalworking companies have increased production, but reduced margins, they have not passed on higher costs to selling prices. The war in Iran (which started at the end of February, editor’s note) only marginally impacts the second quarter, also thanks to the use of stocks, but the effects begin to be seen from June.” The sector’s resilience was supported by the manufacture of Motor vehicles and trailers (+3.2% month-on-month and +13.4% year-on-year) and Other means of transport (respectively +2.1% and +4.9%). Production of Machinery, Electronics and Electrical equipment is struggling.
Exports growing towards non-EU countries, but Asia slows down
Metalworking exports increased on average by 8.3% in the first half compared to 2025, driven by non-EU markets (+9.9%) – notable is the +4.2% from the USA, and the negative sign in exports to Asia – compared to those of the European Union (+6.9%). But imports grew more (+11.9%) and the trade balance stands at about 23 billion euros.
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The hours of wage supplementation authorized by Inps decreased by 22.1% in the semester, but requests for extraordinary wage supplementation exceeded those for ordinary wage supplementation, respectively 73.1 million and 50.7 million, mainly due to the increase in hours authorized for reorganizations and corporate crises (+62.6%).
Business sentiment: expectations worsening
The survey conducted among a sample of associated companies shows a worsening in expectations: the share of companies reporting an increase in order backlog falls to 26% (from 32% in the previous survey), 11% rate the liquidity situation as “bad or very bad,” 20% (was 24%) foresee production increases against 27% (was 21%) expecting contractions. Regarding employment, 13% of companies expect increases, against 14% expecting cuts. “Our industry is in danger and so is the future of the country,” summarizes Vice President Alessia Miotto, “we are facing the crisis of Household Appliances, Automotive and Metallurgy. From geopolitical tensions, we expect negative effects in the long term.” For the director of the study center, Massimo Longhi, “since July the picture has changed with the sharp rise in energy prices which will be felt in the third quarter.”
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