From Somalia to Kosovo, autumn on the front line for the Armed Forces

There is a common thread linking, in terms of defense, what happened during the summer months and the autumn now at the doorstep. It is the trend of Italy taking on top-level roles within major international missions, from Eastern Europe to the Baltics, and to the Balkans and the Horn of Africa. All this while domestic politics debates the opportunity to use the EU’s 14.9 billion Safe funds – in the end, the figure settled at almost 9 billion euros – with conflicting positions shaking the majority, but also in the dialogue between majority and opposition one year before the next elections.

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Let’s start with what awaits us. In the second half of September, the bilateral training mission for Somali and Djiboutian police forces, Somalia Miadit, will be reactivated. The operation is the result of a trilateral cooperation agreement between the Italian, Somali, and Djiboutian states, aimed at promoting stability and security in Somalia and the entire Horn of Africa region, enhancing the capabilities in security and territorial control of the Somali police forces. In this case, the Carabinieri are at the forefront.

A few days later, likely in October, Italy should take command of the Kfor operation in the Balkans, which operates under the NATO umbrella. Currently, 29 countries participate, 24 belonging to the Atlantic Alliance and 5 partners. The mission has had a fluctuating development. After a reinforcement of contingents decided in 2023 following serious tensions and clashes in northern Kosovo, NATO recently announced a gradual reduction of forces. Currently, about 4,600 soldiers are involved (including about 800 Italians), but the outlook is for downsizing due to a general stabilization of security and the progressive strengthening of local security institutions. In reality, the Atlantic Alliance intends to maintain a flexible posture in Kosovo. In case of renewed tensions or deterioration of stability, NATO is ready to quickly reactivate tactical reserve mechanisms and strengthen the contingent. In this scenario, Italy, which will be in command during this transition, will inevitably play a strategic role in defining the new balances of the mission. Moreover, support for the Western Balkans’ entry into the EU is a cornerstone of our foreign policy.

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These two pieces, the Horn of Africa and the Balkans, constitute two parts of a mosaic that has been taking shape in recent months. On Wednesday, July 8, the multinational exercise “Alliance Wall 26” concluded in Mokren, Bulgaria, conducted by the Italian-led Multinational Battle Group Bulgaria. The aim was to consolidate NATO forces’ ability to operate together effectively on the Alliance’s eastern flank. For two weeks, over 700 soldiers from eleven allied countries including Albania, Bulgaria, France, Greece, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Spain, the United States, and Italy trained in the Novo Selo area. The exercise included live-fire activities and maneuvers on the ground, employing about 100 vehicles and weapon systems and using remotely piloted systems for area observation and intelligence gathering. The objective was to verify the allied units’ ability to coordinate quickly.

On Friday, July 31, at the Šiauliai air base in Lithuania, Italy took command of the NATO Baltic Air Policing mission, succeeding the French and Romanian contingents with Eurofighter Typhoon aircraft from the “Air Baltic Thunder III” Task Force. Barely having settled into the new role, the first “scramble” occurred: on August 3, two Eurofighter F-2000s took off on orders from the Combined Air Operations Centre in Uedem to intercept two Russian military aircraft that entered international airspace over the Baltic Sea. The Italian Air Force crews identified and escorted the aircraft in accordance with NATO procedures. Baltic Air Policing is a permanent defensive mission launched in 2004 following Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania’s entry into the Alliance. On August 12, the North Atlantic Council, after repeated violations of Polish and Romanian airspace, reaffirmed its commitment to strengthening integrated air and missile defenses along the entire eastern flank, from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea, in continuity with commitments made at the NATO summit in Ankara in July. If this is the scenario, once again Italy is at the forefront.

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