According to Istat estimates, in 2047 couples without children will be more numerous than those who have at least one. The former will increase by 8.8% in the period between 2025 and 2050, rising from 5.4 to 5.9 million, while the latter will undergo a contraction of 22.3%: from the current 7.5 million (28.1% of the total) they will become 5.8 million in 2050, when they will represent just over one in five families (21.1%).
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Fewer couples with children
In the next 25 years, both couples with at least one child up to 19 years old, who will lose over one million units, for an overall decrease of 22%, and those in which all children are 20 years or older (-22.8%) will drastically decrease.
The expected decline depends on numerous factors. First of all on the expected fertility levels, but also on the decrease in the numerical size of generations of reproductive age due to low birth rates in the past and the postponement of family formation to increasingly advanced ages.
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The date identified by Istat for the overtaking of couples without children – 2047 – refers to the entire peninsula, but marked territorial differences remain. In the North and Center the overtaking will happen earlier, respectively in 2038 and 2044, while in the South it will not occur, despite a substantial approach.
The change in the numerical ratio between couples with and without children will nevertheless affect the whole country, albeit to different extents. In 2050 it will be Southern Italy that retains the highest share of couples with offspring, but the decline will be drastic here as well, where they will drop from 31.2% to 22.4 percent. In the North they will fall from 26.8% to 21%, in the Center from 26.2% to 19.4 percent.
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