BRUSSELS – The referendum to be held today in Iceland has a very uncertain outcome. Voters are called to decide whether to reopen the negotiation for joining the European Union, which was interrupted in 2013. Today as then, fishing is at the center of concerns. Many fear that joining the EU would impose sacrifices in a sector that is a pillar of the Icelandic economy and a symbol of national identity. The vote is also a political test for the European Union, ten years after the United Kingdom’s exit.
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According to a survey published yesterday, 51.6% of respondents opposed reopening negotiations with Brussels, while 48.4% were in favor. Earlier this week, another poll showed diametrically opposite results: 51.3% of people supported the negotiation, 48.7% opposed. The more recent of the two surveys also shows that the youngest age group is significantly more likely than others to vote “no,” according to the Icelandic newspaper Morgunblaðið.
In recent days, Eiríkur Bergmann, professor at Bifröst University, explained that the referendum vote touches on “existential issues” for a country located in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, between Greenland and Norway, nearly a thousand kilometers from the European continent. “Iceland is a member of the European Economic Area and the Schengen zone. It is therefore already three-quarters in the European Union. At the same time, it is vehemently proud of its sovereignty,” added the Icelandic professor. A second referendum would be necessary after any accession negotiations.
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In the aftermath of the early-century financial crisis, Iceland had opened negotiations with Brussels with a view to accession. In 2013, the government decided to abandon the negotiation table for fear of endangering its fishing sector, which was the subject of heated discussions with the European Union. On the other hand, according to the Icelandic Statistics Office, in 2024 the fishing sector accounted for about 40% of exports and represented 8% of the gross domestic product.
Many still fear that Iceland’s entry into the EU and the consequent acceptance of fishing quotas decided in Brussels would penalize the country. Beyond the economic aspect, many voters’ attitudes towards the fishing sector involve identity aspects. At the same time, if the government of Kristrún Frostadóttir (center-left) decided to call a referendum, it is because accession is seen as a tool to reduce inflation (consumer prices rose by 5.6% annually in August), stabilize the krona, and lower interest rates (the Central Bank rate is at 8.0%).
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