A paradoxical harvest. Because the winemakers who have always identified the harvest as the prospect of income if not wealth today almost have to hope to produce less. And the drought that also hit the Italian vineyards will contribute to reducing production, because together with the lack of temperature swings between day and night it caused dehydration phenomena in the grapes and weight loss of the bunches. But the production decline will be less than desirable.
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Producers more worried about the market than production
This is the contradictory sentiment felt among Italian wine producers while the harvest is already well underway ahead of schedule. The real problem, in fact, is not production but the market. Italian wine arrives at the 2026 vintage with record stocks of unsold wine: according to the Ministry of Agriculture, as of last July 31 there were 45.6 million hectoliters of wine and musts in Italian cellars (+8.2% compared to July 31, 2025). A quantity equivalent to having an extra harvest in stock.
High stocks penalize prices
This results in an oversupply that penalizes prices. Last June, Italian bulk DOC wines were quoted on average at 1.57 euros per liter, down 7% compared to the previous year. Even worse was the case for common wines (-19%). To this already complex picture must be added that in the first 5 months of the year exports recorded a drop of almost 7% (to 3 billion euros), with the USA at -15%.
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Castelletti (Uiv): difficult to guarantee income from the vineyard
That is why there is some concern about the possibility of an abundant production. “We believe that there will be a decrease compared to last year,” explains the Secretary General of the Italian Wine Union, Paolo Castelletti, “but not of the necessary size. Under these conditions, the vineyard in Italy cannot guarantee an income to those who work it. We are talking about an average gross saleable production of 4-5 thousand euros per hectare against costs that often reach 7 thousand. It is a reality that must be acknowledged. Under current market conditions, we consider a harvest of 35-38 million hectoliters sustainable, a target that cannot be reached by improvisation, planning is needed.”
The awareness from the production world
There has been a sign of awareness from the production world. In recent months many consortia of wines with designation of origin have reduced the yield of grapes into wine, that is the limit of quintals of grapes to be destined for DOC wine that can be produced per hectare of vineyard. A decision adopted by Brunello di Montalcino (70 quintals/hectare -12.5%), Chianti Classico (65 quintals, -13.3%), Valpolicella (100 quintals -16.7%), Soave (130 quintals, -10%), Pinot Grigio delle Venezie (160 quintals, -11.1%), and also Barbera d’Alba (90 quintals, -10.5%), Asti Docg (85 quintals, -15%) and finally Montepulciano d’Abruzzo and Verdicchio di Jesi with cuts respectively of -10% and -21.4%. “An important signal,” adds Castelletti, “which at least shows awareness. But this system has a fundamental flaw. The yield cut results in a reduction of production of that single DOC but not of the overall production, because from that vineyard it is still possible to produce more grapes to be destined then to IGT wines or common wines. The mechanism must be changed and the yield transformed into an absolute production ceiling as happens in France. Otherwise, excess wine will continue to reach the market penalizing prices.”
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