The 2027 budget is about to forcefully enter the center of political debate, following the return of political activity after the summer break. The technical offices of the ministries have already started after Ferragosto to develop the priorities that will then be at the center of the September meetings. From the issue of the budget deviation to the EU’s judgment, a demanding budget session is anticipated, not only in light of the tight deadlines involved in the approval process of the budget, but also because of next year’s political elections: it will be necessary to find a balance between fiscal discipline and the parties’ demands to advance their flagship measures.
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September 22 – Public finance data update (ISTAT)
ISTAT will publish on September 22 the official revisions of national accounts (GDP, deficit, and debt) referring to the year 2025. These data are fundamental to defining the real margins of the budget maneuver for next year. This year the revision is even more important: since the latest data published in April (2025 deficit at 3.1% of GDP) had narrowly missed exiting the excessive deficit procedure (it needed to be below 3%). If the revision, as happened last year, should raise GDP and thus bring the deficit ratio below 3%, new room would open up for the 2027 budget.
Early October – Presentation of the DPFP
With the new budget rules, the government will have to present the Public Finance Programming Document (DPFP), which has replaced and enhanced the content of the old Update Note of the Economic and Financial Document (NADEF): here the macroeconomic estimates will be updated with the programmatic targets for GDP, deficit, and debt for the 2027-2029 three-year period. There is no precise date for the DPFP presentation: it will be a resolution of the Chambers at the end of September to set it (last year it was October 2). Likewise, the Chambers will have to vote on a resolution on the text presented by the government (indicating the broad lines that the next Budget Law must follow). And right here, in parallel, the budget deviation linked to the activation of the national safeguard clause for energy and military investments should be voted on.
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By October 15 – Submission of the DPB to Brussels
The Government must submit by October 15 to the European Commission and the Eurogroup the Budget Programming Document (DPB), which summarizes the pillars and measures of the 2027 budget. By October 20, the actual budget bill must then be presented to the Chambers, that is, the 2027 budget with the details of the individual measures. According to the usual alternation practice, this year the process should start from the Chamber.
By November 30 – Opinion of the European Commission
The European Commission, by November 30, must present a first opinion on the Budget Programming Document (DPB) submitted by Italy in October (i.e., on the budget). The confirmation and the final verdict on the accounts and the debt/deficit reduction path will arrive in the spring months of 2027 based on actual data.
