German companies no longer trust the USA: direct investments collapse

German companies no longer trust the USA: direct investments collapse
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German companies’ investments in the United States are collapsing: in the first six months of 2026, they decreased by 65% year-on-year and by almost 80% compared to the first six months of 2024, when Donald Trump had not yet returned to the White House.

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The numbers are compiled by the IW Institute in Cologne, based on Bundesbank data. Between January and June, German companies invested about 4.3 billion euros in the United States. In the first half of 2025, it was 12.3 billion and in the first half of 2024 it was 21.3 billion.

The Trump factor

The 2026 figure is historically low, emphasizes the study’s author, Samina Sultan, and confirms a trend that began with Trump’s second term. Lower levels were reached in the first half of 2022, as well as in 2020 and 2023, when even negative values were recorded. “However, this was due to the economic crisis caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, an exceptional case,” explains the economist.

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In the five years before the pandemic, German companies invested an average of 15.8 billion euros in the United States in the first half of the year, almost four times the 2026 level.

Converging analyses

The IW Institute’s analysis confirms what has already been highlighted by other studies, such as a recent survey by the German Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Dihk). According to the survey presented in April, only 41% of companies with locations in the United States said they wanted to increase their capital investment in the country, a historically low share. The same survey, on the contrary, indicated that a growing number of German companies intend to invest outside Germany, seeking lower production costs.

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