The recent increase in wholesale electricity prices has drawn the attention of Arera, which on August 6 ordered the strengthening of the Market Surveillance Unit on the electricity market inaugurated in March. The authority also indicated as causes “objective factors affecting the entire European energy context. Among these, the persistent scarcity of gas supply on international markets, the increase in electricity demand due to high temperatures, and production limitations in several European countries due to exceptional weather conditions.”
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The threshold that triggered the reaction was 207.8 euros per MWh reached on Wednesday, August 5, after a week started off strong: 197.7 euros per MWh was the daily value on Monday, August 3, up from the monthly average of 157 recorded in July (133 in June, 119 in May and April, 143 in March, 114 in February, 132 in January). The daily average on August 6 dropped to 198.3 euros per MWh, and on the 7th it stood at 184.2. Prices are still at levels not seen since January 2023: the wholesale price was 204 euros on January 23, 2023. Apart from the peak of 192.8 euros per MWh on January 20, 2025, the daily Pun Index Gme has remained below these values over the past three and a half years.
The upward trend, after the March turbulence due to the war in Iran, had already started in June following the (then slight) rise in gas prices and consumption driven also by the exceptional heat of that month. Regarding gas, at the end of July the Amsterdam Ttf price surged past 60 euros per MWh, a level not seen since last March, influenced by ongoing Hormuz Strait blockages that have shut off LNG supplies by ship. Yesterday, the value on the Dutch market stopped at 57 euros.
On the electricity demand side, high temperatures have contributed to pushing consumption up due to air conditioner use. According to Terna’s data, the peak demand in June was recorded on the 29th at 57.4 GW. In July, the peak was on the 15th at 58.1 GW: an annual record. While the all-time daily maximum reached in 2015 (60.5 GW) remains unbeaten, the value approaches the 2023 peak (58.87 GW on July 19 of that year) and surpasses those of 2024 (56.98 GW on July 28) and 2025 (55.54 GW on July 2). In the first week of August, the daily peak demand remained around 54 GW, and it is easy to think that the consumption curve will further decline now, with holidays and company closures. Presumably, prices will follow: with lower demand, less efficient and more expensive gas plants drop out of the price formation.
Regarding production limitations, Europe is struggling starting with France, a major nuclear producer (which we also import from): lack of water or high temperatures prevent reactor cooling. The Danube has forced shutdowns or slowdowns of plants in Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria. The same problems occur in Croatia. The energy situation in Europe is currently stable and does not present immediate risks to supply security, but remains tense, said European Commission spokesperson Anna-Kaisa Itkonen on August 6. In Italy, some gas plants on the Po and also hydroelectric plants are struggling. The first half of the year closed with a 20% drop in production compared to the same period in 2025.
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