Vladimir Putin could test NATO’s resolve with a limited attack against an allied country in the coming years: this is the scenario of new US intelligence reports that hypothesize variable scenarios, from a cyberattack to a small-scale ground incursion. Previously, the Wsj reports, it was considered “unlikely” that Putin would provoke a NATO country still engaged in the conflict in Ukraine. Assessments, explained by US officials, come at a time of critical ammunition shortages to face Russia or China in a potential future conflict due to transfers to Ukraine and the war with Iran.
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Among the at-risk reserves are long-range missiles ‘Precision Strike Missile’ and ‘Army Tactical Missile System’ (Atacms), as well as short-range surface-to-air missiles ‘Stinger’, US officials said. The Kremlin’s assessment of the improbability of an attack, however, changed earlier this year as Putin found himself increasingly struggling in Ukraine and under pressure at home to achieve a victory. Kiev’s drones are inflicting increasing damage on both the military and the Russian oil industry, while Russian forces advance slowly at the front suffering heavy losses. American and European leaders increasingly see signs of Russian attacks aimed at probing NATO’s resolve, including cases of Russian cruise missiles landing in Polish territory and drones entering Romanian airspace.
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Putin’s goal in a potential attack on NATO, while the war with Ukraine is still ongoing, would be to break up the Alliance, US officials said. “The unknown is the response the United States would give in such a case,” noted Heather Conley, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, on the possibility of a Russian incursion. “Questioning NATO’s credibility and separating the United States from its allies has always been a goal” of Russia, she added. While Putin struggles to consolidate the hoped-for results in Ukraine, US intelligence officials are assessing whether Moscow intends to intensify its aggressive actions against European allies in the near future, according to some sources: the concern, in other words, is that Putin could become more dangerous if cornered.
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