NAIROBI – Cyril Ramaphosa, for now, avoids the impeachment scenario. The Western Cape High Court has ordered the suspension of the procedure against the South African leader, “provisionally” freezing the indictment on the so-called Farmgate: the scandal of 580 thousand US dollars in cash stolen from his presidential ranch in 2020, which re-emerged in a 2022 report that challenged several illicit acts against the president and head of the African National Congress.
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The verdict allows the inquiry commission to continue its preparatory work pending the two new hearings on the case, already scheduled for early September. Ramaphosa welcomed a ruling triggered by his appeal and reiterates his “respect for the independence of the judiciary,” stating he is ready to cooperate with the judiciary. The victory just secured postpones the reckoning on the investigation and the vote in the Pretoria Parliament, but it does not defuse the legal and political risks underlying one of the most thorny episodes since his ascent to the presidency in 2018.
The saga of the «sofa scandal» and Ramaphosa’s strategy
Parliamentarians restarted the impeachment procedure in June after the Constitutional Court, South Africa’s supreme court, rejected a legal shield secured by the African National Congress majority against the investigations.
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Ramaphosa filed his appeal, obtaining a postponement that seems more to freeze than to avoid the scenario of an internal political showdown within the party and the grand coalition formed after the 2024 elections: the vote that sanctioned the ANC’s collapse below the psychological and political threshold of 50%, forcing it to weave a national unity government currently in office with the liberals of the Democratic Alliance and other minor forces. “The block remains in effect until the court rules on the main issue: that is, whether there are grounds for impeachment,” explains Mcebisi Ndletyana of the University of Johannesburg, expressing doubt about the “momentum” attributed to Ramaphosa by some media outlets.
Ramaphosa will try to delay a judicial reckoning as much as possible to avoid political and legal consequences, explains independent analyst Marisa Lourenço. Politically, the goal is to slide until the end of 2027 and safely pass the internal ANC elections, avoiding succession crises that could be “problematic” for the party. On the legal front, Ramaphosa is aware of the repercussions that risk awaiting him if impeachment is greenlit. The incumbent leader, says Lourenço, knows that the procedure can “disrupt his presidency and be negative for the party, but also force him to face criminal charges.”
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